by Martin Malone

Here’s the latest poster from the Government, summarising the new restrictions in an easy to read format. The (Government) image isn’t the best quality so you can download a PDF here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/949950/COVID-19_England_Lockdown_Poster__Digital___1_.pdf

I should correct my earlier post: wakes and similar ceremonial events are allowed but limited to six people.

I imagine that the remarkable daily increases in infections and deaths have already come to your attention:

  • 62,322 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 2,836,801.
  • 1,041 new deaths reported, giving a total of 77,346.

The North West rolling seven-day rate/100,000 is up from 212.0 to 419.4 (97.8%)

Locally, the updated rates are:

  • Halton – 694.7 (+247.2%)
  • Wirral – 606.5 (+183.5%)
  • Knowsley – 596.6 (+222.7%)
  • Warrington – 570.0 (+124.1%)
  • Sefton – 525.7 (+194.7%)
  • Cheshire West and Chester – 508.6 (+99.8%)
  • Liverpool – 492.7 (+152.1%)
  • Cheshire East – 431.3 (+88.3%)
  • St Helens – 391.0 (+108.9%)

Drilling down, my local rate (Oxton, Wirral) is 1042 and other areas of note locally include Pensby and Thingwall (491), Hoylake (796), Croxteth (908), Formby (979), Maghull (959), Childwall East (736) and Broadgreen (915). It’s notable that central Liverpool is relatively low, perhaps as a result of commuters staying at home rather than travelling into work. A quick reminder that, a few months ago, 20 per 100,000 was treated as the benchmark for introducing international travel restrictions.

Any statistician will tell you that, based on the trends, these figures are going to increase in the coming weeks. Let’s hope that the new restrictions will lead to a substantial reduction in the next few months.

On a more positive note, anecdotal evidence suggests that local vaccinations are well under way, including at my local GP surgery, so there’s reason for optimism.